The Athena Election Observatory (AEO) has said intense political competition, and technological improvements introduced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), helped strengthen electoral integrity during the recently concluded Osun State governorship election.
The Athena Election Observatory, is an independent electoral integrity initiative established by the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership, an Abuja-based think tank founded by former Aviation Minister, Osita Chidoka.
The Osun State governorship election, held on Saturday, August 15, saw Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party declared winner with 511,067 votes, defeating the All Progressives Congress candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 votes.
In its preliminary assessment of the election, released on Monday, the observatory said competition among major political parties increased the logistical and structural challenges of manipulating the election on a large scale.
The assessment, signed by its Media and Communications Officer, Paul Liam, said political parties with agents across polling units, knowledge of the electoral process, and the ability to independently track results could make widespread manipulation more difficult to execute without detection.
Osun Election Records Increase in Electorate
The Athena Election Observatory also highlighted the significant increase in the size of the electorate compared with the 2022 governorship election.
According to the observatory, registered voters increased from 1,952,387 in 2022 to 2,339,544 in 2026, representing a 19.8 per cent increase.
Accredited voters also rose from 827,218 in 2022 to 1,010,684 in 2026, while total votes cast increased from 823,124 to 1,005,800.
However, the accreditation rate remained relatively stable, rising marginally from 42.37 per cent in 2022 to 43.20 per cent in 2026.
The AEO said the combination of a larger voting population, and relatively stable accreditation rates, suggested that a more competitive electorate could reduce the effectiveness of retail vote buying and other forms of voter manipulation.
Adeleke, APC Increase Vote Totals
The observatory noted that both major political camps recorded significant increases in their vote totals compared with the 2022 election.
Ademola Adeleke increased his votes from 403,371 in 2022 to 511,067 in 2026, while the APC’s vote count rose from 375,027 to 444,815.
Despite the increased mobilisation by both camps, the margin of victory widened from 28,344 votes in 2022 to 66,252 votes in 2026, according to the AEO.
INEC Technology Improves Transparency
On technology, the Athena Election Observatory said INEC had made notable progress through the deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), immediate uploads of polling-unit results to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV), and structured digital data entries.
According to the observatory, the measures were helping to create a more transparent and auditable trail of electoral results, although some infrastructure and transparency gaps remained.
The AEO identified upload delays, the need for clearer public transmission timelines, overall system resilience, and the reconciliation of different digital records as areas requiring further technical and institutional improvements.
The observatory said its assessment would now proceed to a comprehensive independent post-election audit, stressing that the declaration of a winner should not mark the end of scrutiny.
It said the focus of the audit would be on determining how resilient, transparent, and accurate the entire process of collation remains when digital records are compared with officially declared results.
