International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 4.1 per cent for 2026, while warning that rising prices of essential goods could worsen poverty and food insecurity in the country.
The IMF made the projection in its July 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, released on Wednesday.
According to the report, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and improve to 4.3 per cent in 2027, with both forecasts unchanged from the Fund’s April outlook.
The IMF also maintained its growth projections for sub-Saharan Africa at 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027.
The Fund said Nigeria’s economic outlook continued to benefit from improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade but cautioned that the rising cost of essential commodities remained a major concern.
“Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity,” the report stated.
The IMF noted that economic performance across sub-Saharan Africa would remain uneven, reflecting differences in policy implementation, reform progress and countries’ exposure to external shocks.
It added that oil-importing and non-resource-intensive economies would likely face increased pressure from rising food and energy prices, while some larger economies continued to benefit from earlier macroeconomic reforms.
Globally, the IMF revised its 2026 growth forecast downward to 3.0 per cent from the 3.1 per cent projected in April but raised its 2027 forecast to 3.4 per cent.
According to the Fund, the downgrade for 2026 reflects the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, although stronger demand driven by advances in artificial intelligence and technology adoption has helped cushion some of the adverse effects.
Despite the resilience of the global economy, the IMF warned that risks remained tilted to the downside.
It identified renewed trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts and tighter global financial conditions as key threats to economic growth.
The Fund urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers through credible fiscal consolidation, improved revenue mobilisation, stronger tax administration, efficient public spending and increased investment in infrastructure, skills development and targeted social protection programmes.
It also advised commodity-exporting countries to avoid excessive public spending during periods of high commodity prices.
“Economies benefiting from commodity windfalls and the upturn in the global technology cycle should avoid procyclical spending and save or redeploy gains within a credible medium-term fiscal framework anchored in debt sustainability,” the report stated.
The IMF further called on policymakers to accelerate structural reforms aimed at boosting productivity, strengthening labour markets, expanding digital and physical infrastructure, promoting predictable trade policies and enhancing international cooperation to support sustainable economic growth.
