International Monetary Fund has upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth projection to 4.4 per cent, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and sustained reforms.
IMF
The January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update forecasts Nigeria’s growth trajectory at 4.1 per cent in 2024, 4.2 per cent in 2025, and 4.4 per cent in 2026—a 0.2 percentage point increase from the October 2025 estimate.
This aligns with sub-Saharan Africa’s projected 4.6 per cent expansion in 2026 and 2027, driven by regional stabilisation efforts.
Globally, the IMF anticipates 3.3 per cent growth amid resilient conditions tempered by trade policy shifts and technology investments. For Nigeria, declining energy prices—expected to fall seven per cent due to weak demand—pose risks, though OPEC+ coordination and China’s stockpiling provide support.
Despite the optimism, downside risks persist from Middle East and Ukraine tensions, protectionism, high debt, and fiscal deficits. The Fund recommends rebuilding fiscal buffers, ensuring central bank independence, and limiting temporary fiscal measures to maintain stability.
Nigeria’s success hinges on consistent reforms and resilience against domestic and global shocks, the IMF concluded.
