Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects that Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), known as petrol, could average N950 per litre throughout 2026, according to its latest Macroeconomic Outlook.
CBN
This forecast rests on key assumptions including a crude oil price of $55 per barrel, an exchange rate stabilising around N1,400 to the dollar, and domestic crude production holding steady at 1.5 million barrels per day.
Currently, Dangote Refinery sets its ex-gantry price at N699 per litre, with MRS Oil retailing at N739 per litre following a mid-December cut from N828.
The CBN anticipates that private sector refining investments, improved oil security, and expanded capacity will bolster supply and temper energy costs amid midstream competition. Headline inflation should ease to 12.94 per cent in 2026 from 21.26 per cent last year, aided by lower food prices and stabilising PMS amid these dynamics.
Dangote has cautioned that reverting to heavy fuel imports could push prices to N1,400 per litre, crediting local production for recent market stability and reduced volatility.
The outlook aligns with broader economic strategies like the $1 trillion economy push, a 27 per cent Monetary Policy Rate, and 45 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio.
