Meta is projected to become the world’s largest digital advertising company by the end of 2026, overtaking Google for the first time, according to new forecasts from Emarketer.
The research firm predicts Meta will generate $243.46 billion in net advertising revenue in 2026. That would put it just ahead of Google, which is projected to bring in $239.54 billion over the same period.
Meta’s ad business is expected to expand by 24.1% this year, up from 22.1% in 2025. Google’s growth, by contrast, is forecast to hold steady at 11.9%.
Focusing on automated advertising tools is enhancing Meta’s Advantage+ suite, which has gained traction among advertisers who want quicker campaign setup and better returns on spending.
That demand is helping the company pull in more marketing budgets at a time when brands are watching costs closely.
“In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” said Max Willens, principal analyst at Emarketer.
Added to this, Meta has also expanded its ad footprint in recent years. It introduced advertising on WhatsApp and Threads, opening new inventory for marketers. At the same time, Instagram Reels is competing in the short-video space, where TikTok and YouTube Shorts are already strong.
Meanwhile, Google still earns from a mix of businesses, including subscriptions such as YouTube Premium. That spread provides stability, but it may also slow how quickly its ad revenue grows compared with Meta’s more focused push.
The market is concentrated. Emarketer expects Google, Meta and Amazon to account for 62.3% of global digital ad spending in 2026.
Smaller platforms are likely to feel more pressure if ad budgets tighten. Analysts say companies such as Snap and Pinterest are more exposed when advertisers shift spending towards larger, established platforms.
Emarketer noted that recent court rulings involving Meta and YouTube were not included in its projections and are not expected to significantly change the outlook.
