Renaissance Capital Africa (Rencap) has named Zenith Bank Plc its top conviction pick among Nigerian banks, ahead of GTCO and AccessCorp, in a fresh research report highlighting the lender’s robust balance sheet and dividend potential despite sector headwinds.
Zenith Bank
The comprehensive review of the Nigerian banking industry notes that Zenith’s current market valuation lags its improving fundamentals, even as the NGX Banking Index posts strong gains recently.
Rencap upgraded Zenith from HOLD to BUY, lifting its target price by 96 per cent based on a lower risk-free rate from falling government bond yields, refined beta estimates, and expectations of cleaner assets post-forybearance resolutions.
Balance Sheet Strength Drives Outlook
Analysts project challenges to earnings growth from anticipated Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) rate cuts but foresee higher dividend payouts from resolved forbearance and single obligor loan (SOL) exposures alongside rising cash profits.
“Although we expect banks to face challenges in growing earnings… the balance sheet clean-up… will support higher dividend payouts relative to prior years,” the report states, ranking Zenith first, followed by GTCO and AccessCorp.
Key positives include loan write-offs that bolstered asset quality, enabling sustainable growth amid financial system reforms.
Dividend Recovery in Focus
Sector profitability from 2023-2024 was inflated by unrealised foreign exchange gains, which regulations barred from cash dividends, capping payouts despite headline profits.
Zenith historically led payout ratios in 2021-2022 via strong cash generation and capital discipline; Rencap expects a rebound as pressures ease, attracting income-focused investors.
Tier-1 Leadership Reinforced
Zenith Bank recently topped Nigeria’s tier-1 capital rankings for the 16th straight year, per The Banker magazine (Financial Times), affirming its resilience and positioning for long-term value creation.
