A flurry of high-risk events may pump global financial markets with fresh volatility this week.
Top-tier data, including US Inflation, the unofficial start of earnings season, and US Congress “Crypto Week,” among other themes, could spell fresh opportunities.
Amidst this, uncertainty over global trade will add to the mix after President Donald Trump threatened 35% tariffs on the EU and Mexico over the weekend.
Regarding US inflation, this may impact bets around Fed cuts in the second half of this year. Markets are forecasting CPI to rise 2.6% from 2.4% in the prior month, with core CPI rising to 2.9% from 2.8%. Signs of rising prices may shave bets around the Fed cutting interest rates – boosting the dollar as a result.
Closer to home, Nigeria’s June CPI data due July 15 is expected to show signs of cooling inflationary pressures. This could offer some relief to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) which aggressively hiked interest rates throughout 2024. Inflation is expected to have eased to 21.4% year-on-year from 23% in May – marking the 4th consecutive month of decline. However, the slowdown is largely a technical adjustment aided by the recent gains in the Naira amid higher non-oil exports and a weaker dollar.
The CBN is scheduled to meet later this month and will most likely keep rates unchanged at 27.5%.
One key challenge for the country will be how to re-tweak its budget for lower oil prices. Indeed, the budget was based around oil production at 2 million barrels and oil prices of $75. Brent is trading around $70 with the nation producing 1.544m b/d of crude in May according to OPEC. Nigeria is hoping to raise production to 1.9m b/d by the end of 2025. But its impact on the economy may be muted if oversupply and tepid demand keep oil prices subdued. Brent is up 4% this month but still down over 6% since the start of 2025.
