World Bank has warned that Nigeria faces a deepening early childhood development crisis in health, nutrition, and learning, threatening long-term productivity and economic growth amid persistent poverty.
In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank noted moderate 2026 growth driven by services like ICT, financial services, and real estate, following 4.0 per cent GDP expansion in 2025. Inflation eased to double digits via tight policy, stable exchange rates, and better food supply, while reserves hit $45.5 billion gross by end-2025, covering 8.7 months of imports.
Fiscal deficit widened slightly as non-oil revenues rose to 8.5 per cent of GDP from improved tax administration, e-filing, and VAT e-invoicing, though wage growth lagged inflation, leaving real incomes strained and poverty unchanged.
The bank highlighted poor outcomes with 110 of 1,000 children dying before age five, 40 per cent stunted, and 52 per cent developmentally off-track at school entry—gaps three times wider in poor households and exceeding 40 points between rich and poor. It urged investment in the first 2,000 days for better education, earnings, health, and cohesion.
Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast dipped to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent due to Middle East conflict inflating fuel and fertiliser costs.
Finance Minister Wale Edun countered with recovery signs: falling inflation, rising non-oil revenues, declining debt-to-GDP, and stabilising naira via digital tracking, audits, and PPP shifts. Budget Director Tanimu Yakubu described reforms as correcting imbalances from subsidies and multiple rates, boosting FAAC revenues 40 per cent and reserves over $40 billion, with debt under 30 per cent of GDP.
NACCIMA President Jani Ibrahim called for data-driven strategies amid tax changes, inflation, and global tensions, eyeing AfCFTA, digital economy, and green investments for growth.
